Scholars and political strategists have long observed that voters tend to seek leadership change during times of economic hardship, a phenomenon that suggests that new leaders are likely to offer solutions to pressing economic challenges. It is rooted in the belief that something may be provided. A recent quarterly poll highlighted small business owners’ concerns about inflation and other challenges faced under the Biden administration.
After the election, there is a growing sense of optimism in the small business community.
In the CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey for Q4 2024, the Small Business Confidence Index rose to 62 points out of 100, up 11 points from 51 points in Q3 2024 and from Q4 last year (46 points). (point) increased by 16 points.
The optimistic view of Republican business leaders is driving the rise in favorability ratings. Specifically, small business owners who identify as Democrats reported a drop in business confidence from 62 businesses in the previous quarter to 50 businesses in the fourth quarter. However, this decline is not enough to offset a significant increase in sentiment among Republican business owners (28 points quarter over quarter). The Independents recorded a small increase from 51 points in Q3 to 57 points in Q4.
The online poll was conducted from November 11th to November 11th. It ranked 18th out of a sample of more than 2,700 small business owners.
President Trump’s tariffs and partisan sentiment
While business confidence among small and medium-sized businesses is rising, business owners are expressing concerns about the unknown over tighter trade restrictions and the potential for higher costs of imports and raw materials under the new president.
Concerns are almost 50-50 when it comes to tariffs. More than half (54%) of all small businesses say they are not at all or not very concerned, and 46% are very or somewhat concerned.
Analyzing the data based on party affiliation, 76% of Republican business owners have little or no concern about the proposed tariffs, compared to 22% of Democrats. Conversely, 78% of Democratic business owners are “very or somewhat concerned,” compared to just 24% of Republican business owners.
Opinions are even more divided on the issue of tariffs, depending on party affiliation. Four in 10 (42%) small business owners expect President-elect Trump’s proposed tariffs to affect their business, compared to 33 who expect no impact. It was %. Republican business owners are more likely than Democrats to say they won’t be affected by tariffs (48% vs. 16%). Two in three Democrats (64%) think tariffs will affect their business, compared to just 31% of Republicans.
Interestingly, only one in four small business owners (23%) are taking pre-emptive action ahead of proposed tariffs, and more than half have no plans to take any action (56%). , one in five (20%) are not sure.
Agreement on peak inflation
The survey results reflect positive sentiment and a less partisan outlook on inflation. 40% of small business owners feel inflation has peaked, up from 33% last quarter, including 45% of Republican respondents and 40% of Democratic respondents. There is. Inflation remains a top concern for small business owners, but just 28% cite it as their biggest risk, down from 38% last quarter.
Confidence in the Fed’s ability to curb inflation reached a new high in this quarter’s report, but partisan divisions remain a prominent issue at the Fed. Almost half (45%) of small business owners say they are “very or somewhat confident” in the Fed’s ability to control inflation, an 11-point increase from the previous quarter (34%). But that average includes 68% of Democratic respondents compared to 31% of Republican respondents.
The latest CNBC|SurveyMonkey survey results reflect growing confidence and optimism, and the question now turns to whether this trend will continue long-term. As a new government takes office, it remains to be seen how the new economic policies will actually impact these entrepreneurs and their businesses.
—Written by Eric Johnson, SurveyMonkey CEO
