If 2024 is the year when traditional foreign automakers exit the Chinese car market, 2025 is likely to be the year when a few local electric car companies can consolidate their leadership. “In China, [new energy vehicle] “While foreign brands decline, leaders such as BYD are likely to further strengthen their market positions,” Nomura said in his 2025 World Automotive Outlook released on December 4. They pointed out that BYD already accounts for 16% of the total Chinese car market. In October this year, it increased from 12% in 2023. This is based on year-to-date sales figures, making the Hong Kong-based automaker the top contender in China’s auto market. BYD’s price target is HK$375 ($48.20), and its third-quarter sales exceeded Tesla’s for the first time on a quarterly basis, with an increase of just over 3%. The automaker produced more cars in 2023 than Elon Musk’s automaker for the second year in a row, but Tesla still produced more battery-only cars than BYD. The company’s hybrid vehicles account for at least half of its sales, but the US electric car company sells them at a much higher price point than most of BYD’s models, and sales in China in November were up from a year earlier. BYD’s sales fell 67%, compared to a 4.3% decline. According to Nomura, BYD has a significant lead over its competitors, with No. 2 China’s market share, Geely Automobile, having just 8% of the market, according to calculations by CNBC based on data from the China Passenger Car Association. Analysts at HSBC raised their price target for Hong Kong-traded Geely Automobile in late November to HK$19.30, nearly 31% above Friday’s closing price. The company rates the stock a “buy.” HSBC analysts said, “We believe we are on track to exceed our full-year target of 2 million units, and we expect EV penetration to reach 40%, supported by the strong performance of newly launched models.” Ta. They expect Geely Automobile’s sales to increase by 22% to 2.6 million units next year. Geely owns U.S.-listed electric car company G-Car, as well as other car brands, including Volvo, the Swedish brand that the Chinese company acquired from Ford in 2010. Other traditional automakers at home and abroad are also struggling in China as the world’s largest auto market rapidly transitions. Compatible with battery-only cars and hybrid cars. General Motors announced last week that it expects to incur billions of dollars in costs as it restructures its joint venture with China’s SAIC Motor Corporation. The changes also include plans to close the plant. According to Nomura, GM’s local joint venture, SAIC-GM Wuling, accounted for 3% of China’s auto market that year as of October. According to the data, the company held 6% of the new energy vehicle sector. Compared to top players BYD and Geely, China’s electric vehicle startups still only account for a small portion of the domestic market. One stock Citi analysts rate as a buy is Hong Kong-listed Yongda. The company operates stores for several new energy vehicle brands in China, including Huawei’s Aidong. Although the Chinese smartphone and communications giant emphasizes that it does not manufacture cars, Huawei does partner with traditional automakers to produce in-car entertainment systems, driver-assistance technology, and other products. It sells battery-only cars and hybrid cars that are equipped with software. Citi analysts said in a Dec. 4 conversation with Yongda executives that the number of cars equipped with Huawei’s automotive systems could reach 1 million next year, exceeding the company’s internal sales forecast of 700,000. He said there is. Citi said Yonda expects the total number of Huawei-certified stores to exceed 20 by early next year, up from the current eight. The company has set a price target for Yongda at HK$2.98, an increase of nearly 47% from Friday’s closing price. According to Citi, Yongda also operates Xiaomi and Xiaopeng electric car dealerships. Among listed electric vehicle startups in China, Citi analysts rate Nio and Leapmotor as buys, but not buys on Xpeng and Li Auto, rating both as neutral. Citi said in a report in late November that Hong Kong-listed Leap Motor spends more efficiently than its peers on research and development by about 7,400 yuan (about $1,017) per unit. In contrast, Xpeng costs 25,900 yuan, Nio 26,900 yuan and Li Auto 21,000 yuan, according to Citi. Analysts raised their price target for Leap Motor to HK$45.10 from HK$44.20, almost 62% above Friday’s closing price. Citi predicts Nio’s U.S.-listed shares could reach $8.90, nearly double from current levels. At a December 3 meeting with Nio, Citi said it aims to reach breakeven at group level in 2026, including by limiting increases in R&D spending to less than 10% a year and increasing vehicle deliveries. He said that According to a Citi report, the company will increase sales of its premium brand “Nio” by 10-20% next year and accelerate sales of its recently launched low-priced brand “Onvo” to 20,000 units per month in March. This is what they are aiming for. Citi said it expects Ombo’s monthly sales to reach 30,000 to 50,000 units with the launch of two new SUVs in the second half of next year.
GM and Tesla struggles in China move electric vehicle stocks towards 2025
