If China retaliates against Trump, U.S. companies will also be in its crosshairs.

As President-elect Donald Trump’s trade and foreign policy team takes a hawkish stance toward China, U.S. companies are worried that a hard-line approach could hurt prospects in the world’s second-largest economy and threaten Chinese retaliation. There are growing concerns that they may be targeted.

President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of at least 60% on China and vowed to end dependence on China. That alone is devastating. Many experts say U.S. consumers will end up paying higher prices in stores as companies scramble to find other sources, leading to job losses.

In addition, the Chinese government may respond with an expanded toolkit to target U.S. companies.

Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told reporters in Beijing on Thursday that “the Trump administration’s actions could be seen or interpreted as economic warfare.” “If interpreted that way, China may respond more vigorously than just imposing tariffs.”

Kennedy said such actions could range from economic fluctuations to diplomatic and security issues, adding that China could “reply as strongly as possible.”

With China’s nationalism on the rise, there is a risk of public backlash if relations between the United States and China become more belligerent. The Chinese government has strong control over the flow of information, leading to consumer boycotts of international brands.

“Worst of all, consumer brands that are not strategic in nature, not controversial in themselves, and not subject to export controls can be penalized by local consumers because of their nationality. ” said Michael Hart, president of American Media. Chinese Chamber of Commerce and Industry. “Post-COVID-19, companies are looking to diversify and strengthen their supply chains, but there are still no easy and reliable alternatives to the supply chains and manufacturing that have developed in China over the past few decades. .”

During President Trump’s first term, the Chinese government retaliated against U.S. tariffs by imposing its own tariffs on U.S. imports.

The U.S.-China Business Council, in collaboration with Oxford Economics, said a new tit-for-tat tariff battle would result in “a permanent loss of revenue and pressure on companies to cut jobs and investment plans,” with net job losses of up to 80. It is estimated that the number could reach 1,000. By 2025.

The report predicts that Nevada, Florida and Arizona will be among the states hardest hit by these tariffs because their economies depend on consumer demand. Manufacturing states such as Indiana, Kansas, Michigan and Ohio would also be vulnerable, according to the Oxford report. In the 2024 election, the battleground states of Nevada, Arizona, and Michigan all went to Trump, helping to return him to the White House.

During the last trade war, China also stopped purchasing agricultural products from the United States. The move targets key U.S. exports such as soybeans and disproportionately hits rural America, where Trump has strong support.

James McGregor, a 30-year business consultant on China, said he expects China will again use leverage to buy U.S. agricultural products if it feels cornered.

“China is already focused on moving away from its dependence on U.S. agricultural products. Once alternative supplies become available, China could move away from U.S. farmers as much as possible,” McGregor said.

Two years ago, China started importing corn from Brazil. The country is now China’s largest corn supplier, surpassing the United States.

Beijing could also expand its retaliatory measures, including targeting U.S. companies operating in China.

Since President Trump’s first term, China’s business environment has tightened significantly. Despite China’s leadership expressing efforts to welcome international businesses, AmCham China’s 2024 Business Environment Survey report found that 39% of businesses surveyed feel less welcome in China. It turned out that there was.

There are also risks that changes in laws and regulations in China could threaten U.S. companies.

In recent years, China has significantly revised its export control regulations. These strict controls limit metals critical to the U.S. clean energy and semiconductor sectors.

Analysts expect China to take similar steps during President Trump’s second term, aiming to deprive U.S. industries of key minerals and ingredients.

The Chinese government has also strengthened laws such as the Foreign Sanctions Act, which leads to domestic investigations, fines, and restrictions on activities.

Even before the U.S. presidential election, the Chinese government had shown signs of targeting specific U.S. companies. for example, PVHthe owner of Calvin Klein, is under investigation thanks to this law.

China has an updated anti-espionage law, but international business groups such as AmCham China have criticized the policy as “vague”.

The law has led to the detention of executives and staff, raids on international companies, and has made it easier for authorities to impose exit bans and bar defendants from leaving the country.

Many are concerned that regulators’ day-to-day efforts in China will become even more difficult as the retaliatory environment intensifies.

Since President Trump’s first term, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has further consolidated his power.

Experts say that if Xi signals that he is not friendly to U.S. companies, they can expect regulations on permits, safety inspections, permits and other approvals to be interpreted more harshly by lower-level officials.

“China is likely to retaliate against American companies, leading to their gradual exclusion from the Chinese market and potential replacement,” McGregor said.