Record summer travel hits: Impact on fares and flight delays

The US is expecting a surge in summer air travel. The TSA screened 2.99 million passengers on Sunday, June 23, beating the record set just a few weeks earlier on May 24. The TSA also expects a record-breaking Fourth of July holiday period, with more than 3 million passengers expected to be screened on Friday, the start of Independence Day week.

In total, the TSA plans to screen more than 32 million travelers between Friday, June 28 and Monday, July 8, which represents a 5.4% increase in travel over the holiday compared to last year.

The record increase in air travel comes amid a host of challenges facing airlines, from supply chain delays to strict regulations, restrictions on bringing new planes to market due to a Boeing safety crisis, air traffic controller “fatigue,” delays caused by extreme weather and rising costs that are eating into airline revenues and squeezing profit margins.

Airports were not fully prepared for the first rush of summer. By the evening of Friday, May 24, more than 6,000 flights were delayed on the East Coast alone. While there may be enough flights to meet demand, record travel remains a challenge for airports, airlines and travelers. For now, airlines are expressing confidence.

Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” this week that the airline’s operating levels are excellent and that its “confidence in the first quarter was the best it could be.” [Delta has] I’ve never seen anything like it before.” (Delta has the best on-time performance record in the U.S.)

But adjustments will also be necessary.

American Airlines CEO Robert Isom told Squawk Box that the airline strives to “operate the most reliable airline possible,” but that factors that can affect on-time performance range from weather to air traffic control issues.

Air traffic, extreme weather

The Federal Aviation Administration found that there is a shortage of up to 3,000 needed air traffic controllers. Last summer was a record summer for airports, with difficulties in coordinating flights causing air traffic jams and near-crashes. Based on air traffic patterns and airport density, New York City and Florida are at highest risk for congestion.

The heatwaves across the U.S. were a sign of more extreme weather that could disrupt travel. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting bad weather over the holiday week, with storms in the Midwest and East Coast and continued dangerous heat in the inland Southwest and Northeast.

Extreme temperatures can cause technical breakdowns, leading to delays. High heat thins the air, hindering aircraft’s momentum to take off and climb. This means planes need longer runways to take off, or have to lighten the plane by offloading baggage and passengers. Extremely high temperatures also increase the risk of flight cancellations. To avoid this risk, it’s best to take early morning or late-night flights.

Good news to ease travel anxiety

Travelers who have backup plans prepared and in place can make the most of the busy summer season, and despite all the travel fears and uncertainty, Clint Henderson, travel expert and editor-in-chief of The Points Guy, said airlines and airports have shown signs so far of being better prepared than usual.

Although the problems in May, Boeing delays and other factors have caused some airlines to scale back their overall hiring plans compared to years past, Henderson said, “We haven’t seen the massive collapse that we saw a few years ago. And I think part of that is because everyone from airlines to airports to Uber to rental car companies has been filling positions.”

United Airlines is expecting a 7% increase in passenger numbers starting the week of Independence Day in 2023 and is adding new staff to handle the increase. American Airlines plans to increase summer departures by 10% compared to last year.

Air traffic controllers are also working better together. “The federal government and local air traffic control towers are working much more closely together, including with the military, who opened up military airspace to accommodate the crowds, which is why we’re seeing disruptions,” Henderson said. “We still have an air traffic controller shortage, but it hasn’t gotten to the worst of what we predicted a year ago when we were complaining about an air traffic controller shortage.”

But they warned that poor air traffic control could exacerbate delays for travelers in the event of bad weather.

Independence Day Travel Tips

With prices dropping faster than expected, many people who fly less frequently this summer could start by signing up for airline apps, which offer a number of sign-up perks, from miles to free Wi-Fi on select flights.

Henderson said some of the easiest ways to shave hours off wait times include signing up for programs like TSA PreCheck and Clear, which allow passengers to speed through security, and the Mobile Passport Control app, which lets people pass through U.S. customs lanes without needing to apply.

He also recommended using the Flighty tracker app or similar flight trackers to understand options if a flight’s status changes. Passengers should also be aware of the route their flight is already taking to spot issues at other airports that could ultimately cause a chain of cancellations.

“If your flight gets canceled, you’re competing with other passengers on that plane to get on the next one, so if you can get out before them, you’re in a position to win,” Henderson said. When it comes to peak season travel, “information is power,” he said.

Airfares won’t stay cheap forever

While airfares are falling, many factors affect the price, from a traveler’s specific destination (prices vary widely depending on the route), to when you buy your ticket, whether you’re traveling during the week or on the weekend, and whether extra fees (such as baggage) can significantly add to the total cost of a trip.

Additionally, recent price declines may not last long due to lingering issues with the supply of new planes, including FAA production cuts at Boeing and disruptions to the Airbus supply chain. Henderson expects airlines will eventually implement price increases tied to rising maintenance costs and reduced aircraft capacity.

Labor and fuel costs per flight have soared in the past year, and production delays have caused airlines to pay billions of dollars to fly less fuel-efficient, more expensive and older jets that experience more technical problems and delays.

Southwest Airlines cut its second-quarter profit outlook on June 26, citing booking concerns. The airline said it expected revenue per seat mile to fall and that fuel costs would increase by up to 7.5% year over year.

But for now, airfares haven’t bounced back to their summer 2023 peaks despite rising costs, and consumers are taking advantage. Henderson said many of the last-minute travel deals airlines are offering this summer are still available. Even if security lines get longer, fares on many routes won’t be a burden on travelers, and hopefully delays and cancellations won’t happen.