Ryan Gosling stars in Universal’s “The Fall Guy.”
Universal
For the first time since 2009, there was no Marvel movie at the box office to kick off the summer movie season, and it shows.
Since the release of Iron Man in 2008, Marvel Cinematic Universe movies have consistently opened in this high-margin movie season, with opening grosses of less than $100 million excluding pandemic years. There were only two.
This year, the headline movies for the first summer weekend are: universal “Fall Guy”. And despite strong marketing efforts and solid reviews, the film failed to increase ticket sales during its release last weekend. The film grossed less than $28 million at the domestic premiere.
“Fall Guys” had quality co-stars in Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt, but the lack of a well-known franchise brand and niche storyline meant it lacked the scope to attract mass audiences like Summer. It was too small,” said managing director Eric Handler. Ross MKM wrote in a note to investors on Monday.
This stumble does not bode well for the summer box office. Box office revenue was already set to fall from last year’s $4.1 billion as two labor strikes in Hollywood halted production and slowed the release pipeline of new films.
The result could reduce box office revenue in the summer of 2024 by up to $800 million compared to 2023, with ripple effects throughout the year, according to Comscore’s Paul Dergarabedian. . After all, the critical summer period from the first weekend of May to Labor Day typically accounts for 40% of the total annual domestic box office receipts.
Limited and unreliable distribution of new movies means moviegoers are not exposed to movie trailers and poster promotions at their local theaters, and are unaware of what’s coming to the big screen. This means that there is a possibility that it is not. Additionally, this summer’s movie lineup isn’t as strong as previous years, with fewer blockbusters and major franchise films.
The only superhero movie scheduled for the summer is Disney’s first R-rated Marvel movie, Deadpool & Wolverine, which won’t be released until late July.
Analysts currently believe ticket sales for the summer movie season will top $3 billion, but only just. Before COVID-19, summer box office revenue consistently exceeded $4 billion. The last time season ticket sales fell to $3 billion was in 2000, according to ComScore data.
Dergarabedian said: “Even if a year-on-year decline in revenue is inevitable, the summer of 2024 should be judged by the quality and value of the movie experience, not by the amount of box office money in the closet.” ” he said.
Summer without energy
So far this quarter, box office revenue is down 48% from a year ago, Handler said. While he expects the May schedule to help strengthen ticket sales, he said the box office “needs to see some big ripple” to “make up some lost ground.”
“Movie theater operators now need a massive content injection,” Handler wrote. “Not only was there less content in the second quarter, but there was also a lack of excitement.”
Summer’s biggest movie release
May 9 — “Planet of the Apes”
May 17th — “IF”
May 17 — “Strangers: Chapter 1”
May 24 — “Furiosa: A Mad Max Story”
May 24th — “Garfield Movie”
June 7 — “Bad Boys: Ride or Die”
June 14 — “Inside Head 2”
June 21st — “Bike Riders”
June 28 — “A Quiet Place: Day 1”
July 3 — “Despicable Me 4”
July 19 — “Twisters”
July 26 — “Deadpool and Wolverine”
August 9th — “Borderlands”
August 16 — “Alien: Romulus”
August 23 — “Crow”
Disney’s “Kingdom for the Planet of the Apes” is expected to gross between $55 million and $60 million in its opening weekend domestically for the remainder of May. Paramount’s IF is expected to be around $40 million. and Warner Bros.” “Furiosa” is expected to gross between $40 million and $50 million.
However, these predictions pale in comparison to major releases from the same month last year. Universal’s “Fast X” opened with $67 million, and Disney’s live-action film “The Little Mermaid” opened with $96 million.
It remains to be seen whether blockbusters like last year’s Angel’s “Sound of Freedom” will arrive this summer and boost overall box office revenue.
Strong finish
Plans for summer 2024 include more family-friendly fares. Numerous animated productions from established series are sure to captivate parents and children during the summer holidays and school holidays.
Universal’s Kung Fu Panda 4 is currently the second highest-grossing film in the country in 2024, with ticket sales of $188.4 million. Warner Bros. and Legendary Entertainment’s Dune: Part 2 was the highest-grossing domestic release of the year so far, with $281.3 million.
And then comes the big hitter at the end of the year.
“Beetlejuice” was released in early September, “Joker: Folie à Deux” was released in October alongside “Venom: The Last Dance” and “Gladiator II” was released in November. , “Moana 2” and “Wicked” will be released. Additionally, “Kraven the Hunter”, “Sonic the Hedgehog 3”, and “Mufasa: The Lion King” will be released in December.
Notably, the first “Joker” grossed $335 million domestically in 2019. Both “Venom” movies grossed $213 million each. 2016’s Moana grossed $248.7 million, while the previous two Sonic movies grossed $146 million and $190 million during their theatrical run.
“In the end, it’s the multiplex that wins the race, not the spreadsheet,” Dergarabedian said.
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.
